The eve of World War III

Sir Winston Churchill’s memoirs reveal England’s political attitude on the eve of World War I.
Archduke Francis Ferdinand of Austria was assassinated at Sarajevo, Serbia, on June 28, 1914, by a Serbian nationalist. The Balkan nations had become a tinder box of ethnic and nationalist political rivalries over the years. Extensive alliances had been formed with a variety of European powers of the day. War clouds preceding a violent storm were ignored.
Sir Winston recalled a British cabinet meeting in London, several days after the assassination of the Austrian crown prince, at which the incident in Sarajevo was mentioned in passing. It was not important enough to place on the cabinet agenda. The Irish problem dominated the meeting. Churchill’s notes revealed he would depart the following day for a two-week vacation.
The situation, immediately following the assassination, suddenly became very fluid.
Ten days later, Britain declared war on Germany. This is recorded history.
Few would deny the Middle East situation today is very fluid.
The United Nations has no control. The United States is losing control. Europe has washed its hands of any control.
An honest appraisal would have to identify terrorist Hezbollah as the controlling influence.
Hezbollah realizes this. Its main objective now is to widen the conflict.
International intelligence reports Iran at the root of the conflict. Iran is supporting Syria, the real base of Hezbollah, against its arch enemy, Israel, through Syria’s recently occupied territory of Lebanon.
Israel will not stop its attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and rightly so, as long as Hezbollah rockets are fired into Israel. The United States will not call for a cease-fire until the rocket attacks cease or an agreement is reached between Israel and Hezbollah for a permanent truce.
The July 30 attack on the community of Qana near Tyre, killing more than 50 people, 34 of them children, has cast the die.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s urgent meeting in Beirut on Sunday was cancelled by Lebanon. The hopeless United Nations is now the fall back position.
A major shift in world perception has occurred since the July 30 attack on Qana and the killing of innocent children.
The United States is perceived now by most of the world as the only nation that can exert influence on Israel to declare a cease-fire. Failing action to bring about a cease-fire placed the United States firmly in first place as the principal to blame.
Hezbollah will not quit. Any organization that will encourage the killing of its own children is beyond the concept of negotiation.
Overshadowed by Qana was a very public meeting between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran and President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela. President Chávez was awarded Iran’s highest state medal on July 30 for supporting Tehran in its nuclear standoff, especially its opposition to a resolution by the International Atomic Energy Agency. An alliance between Iran and Venezuela appears to be in the making.
The United States gets 11 percent of its crude oil imports from OPEC member Venezuela. Iran’s contribution to world oil production greatly affects U.S. imports of some 25 percent from the Middle East.
The U.S. Emergency Petroleum Reserve will only replace imported oil for 60 days. Canada has no petroleum energy reserve and has announced it will not export in the event of a crisis.
A more frightening aspect of Mid-East tensions is the upcoming confrontation with Iran itself, in stopping the enrichment of uranium for the production of nuclear weapons.
Iran effectively controls the Straits of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf region through which passes two-fifths of all world-traded oil. In the event it became necessary to physically take out Iran’s nuclear capability, chaotic conditions would develop in the oil transport sector.
Cruise missiles fired from positions along the Iranian shore and from the three Iranian controlled islands in the straits could sink passing tankers and possibly block the channel.
Only a suicidal mentality could condone such actions.
The United States has placed itself in the most precarious economic situation in history.
The American public has effectively ignored any upcoming energy crisis for years. It has blamed the gas pump for high prices and ignored a spineless Congress that has defeated every proposal for energy security since President Richard Nixon’s “Independence ‘76” program advanced after the 1973 Arab-Israeli War and the founding of OPEC.
The present Congress, even though controlled by the Republican Party, has rejected drilling for oil in ANWR (Alaska) some 10 times.
An oil boycott by just a few nations, including Iran and Venezuela, for even a short period of time, could deprive the United States of it ability to wage war and continue its robust economy simultaneously.
Yogi Berra said it well: “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.”
That’s where America finds itself today, on the eve of World War III.
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Mr. Hostetter welcomes comments at admin@americanfarm.com.