1.08.2008

By KEVIN RODGERS

(Editor’s Note: Kevin Rodgers, a fourth-generation farmer and member of a family partnership, is president of the Arizona Farm Bureau.)

I appreciate that facts don’t sell — emotion does — and there is nothing more emotional than immigration these days.
Because there are so many aspects and implications related to immigration in today’s world, this is understandable.
But facts are troublesome things, and they won’t go away, no matter how much we deny them. The need for new labor in this country is a reality.
Next year, for the first time, we will have more citizens leaving the work force than joining it. Over the next few years, the number of Americans age 55 and older will grow five times faster than growth in the work force. One-fourth of the population, more than 76 million people, will leave the work force over the next 20 years.
So we know we have jobs to fill, yet native-born workers will not be here to fill them.
Our nation is nearly at full employment. In agriculture, we have permanent and seasonal needs in particular areas, but that does not necessarily correspond to areas of the country where people are looking for work.
We are increasingly educated. We are aging rapidly, and Americans have plentiful employment prospects outside of agriculture.
There is a labor shortage in this country, for both entry-level and skilled workers.
It exists. Employers know it.
Simply paying more will not increase the pool of native-born workers.
In Yuma County, Ariz., alone, we need 20,000 workers a day to harvest fresh vegetables in the next few months.
We need to end the argument about whether Americans will or will not do certain jobs. Employers know the reality – Americans simply are not available to do many of these jobs.
Judith Gans at the University of Arizona puts it very well when she states, “Demographic trends have divided the world into two economic ‘camps.’ One is characterized by mature, immigrant-receiving economies with aging, slow-growing populations.
“The other consists of developing, immigrant-sending economies with younger, more rapidly growing populations. Legal, as well as illegal, migration by people moving for economic reasons is a world-wide phenomenon.”
The United States must be an immigrant-receiving country if the economy is to remain healthy and grow.
You may find that unsettling, but denying it will not change a thing. The longer we take to accept this reality, the worse the problem will become.
It is easy to forget that the economy and jobs depend on one another. One job creates another and another. My ability to have and do my job depends on others having and doing theirs.
If labor pools, both entry-level and skilled, are not available, business risks cannot be managed, capital investment dries up, businesses contract or go away and the economy shrinks. As a farmer, my banker will not lend me money to put out a crop if I do not have a reliable labor force to harvest it.
Most business owners are in the same position with their bankers.
If the economy shrinks, jobs that may seem stable and totally unrelated to the immigration issue will be lost. We need to stop thinking about this solely in terms of immigration.
The issue is a legal, reliable and adequate labor supply.
We do not have the native-born population to meet our needs now or in the future. Even conceding all the challenges of immigration, on balance, a proper system will create jobs — not displace them.
Today, we have neither the visas nor appropriate processes to import the legal labor we need. The labor supply of the U.S. is inadequate for the health of our economy.
Can employers change that? The answer: No. Only the federal government can fix this.
Should it be legal? You bet.
Again, the federal government can fix this, but it has not.
And a major reason is the public’s reaction to arguments based on motion and fear.
I know immigration impacts the public in many ways, but we must fix this as a labor issue. Facts will catch up with emotion.
The only question is when, and what will be the economic cost and number of American jobs lost in the interim.